Favorites went 8-8 against the spread (50.0%) and home teams 8-8 (50.0%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Carolina Panthers beat the number by 28.5 points in CAR @ ATL. Games finished 6 over and 10 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line. Click a game for its page, or a team for its page.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions@Buffalo Bills | Thu | DET 31, BUF 41 | BUF -5.5 | Buffalo Bills by 4.5 | 72 vs 54.5 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | CAR 34, ATL 3 | CAR -2.5 | Carolina Panthers by 28.5 | 37 vs 43.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | NO 24, BAL 17 | BAL -8.5 | New Orleans Saints by 15.5 | 41 vs 45.5 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Chicago Bears | Sun | MIN 9, CHI 3 | CHI -4.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 10.5 | 12 vs 46.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Houston Texans | Sun | CIN 20, HOU 6 | HOU -3 | Cincinnati Bengals by 17 | 26 vs 45.5 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@New England Patriots | Sun | PIT 3, NE 20 | NE -4.5 | New England Patriots by 12.5 | 23 vs 41.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@New York Jets | Sun | GB 20, NYJ 17 | GB -3.5 | New York Jets by 0.5 | 37 vs 44.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | CLE 23, TB 19 | TB -8.5 | Cleveland Browns by 12.5 | 42 vs 41.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Tennessee Titans | Sun | PHI 24, TEN 20 | PHI -7.5 | Tennessee Titans by 3.5 | 44 vs 39.5 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Denver Broncos | Sun | JAX 13, DEN 20 | DEN -2.5 | Denver Broncos by 4.5 | 33 vs 45.5 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | LV 26, LAC 14 | LAC -6.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 18.5 | 40 vs 43.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | SEA 31, ARI 7 | SEA -3.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 20.5 | 38 vs 40.5 Under |
| Washington Commanders@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | WAS 20, DAL 37 | DAL -3.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 13.5 | 57 vs 51.5 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | MIA 13, SF 35 | SF -12.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 9.5 | 48 vs 44.5 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | IND 30, KC 33 | KC -6 | Indianapolis Colts by 3 | 63 vs 46.5 Over |
| New York Giants@Los Angeles Rams | Mon | NYG 6, LA 28 | LA -6.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 15.5 | 34 vs 47.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 2, 2026 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.