Favorites went 9-7 against the spread (56.2%) and home teams 7-9 (43.8%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: San Francisco 49ers beat the number by 23.5 points in SF @ LA. Games finished 9 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line. Click a game for its page, or a team for its page.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots@Seattle Seahawks | Wed | NE 10, SEA 13 | SEA -3.5 | New England Patriots by 0.5 | 23 vs 44.5 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Los Angeles Rams | Thu | SF 27, LA 7 | LA -3.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 23.5 | 34 vs 47.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Carolina Panthers | Sun | CHI 59, CAR 37 | CHI -3 | Chicago Bears by 19 | 96 vs 47.5 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | TB 27, CIN 33 | CIN -3.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 2.5 | 60 vs 50.5 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Detroit Lions | Sun | NO 30, DET 31 | DET -7 | New Orleans Saints by 6 | 61 vs 49.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@Houston Texans | Sun | BUF 36, HOU 31 | BUF -1.5 | Buffalo Bills by 3.5 | 67 vs 44.5 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | BAL 41, IND 23 | BAL -3 | Baltimore Ravens by 15 | 64 vs 48.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | CLE 10, JAX 34 | JAX -8.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 15.5 | 44 vs 40.5 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | ATL 13, PIT 20 | PIT -6.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 0.5 | 33 vs 40.5 Under |
| New York Jets@Tennessee Titans | Sun | NYJ 23, TEN 10 | TEN -1.5 | New York Jets by 14.5 | 33 vs 39.5 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | ARI 26, LAC 14 | LAC -8.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 20.5 | 40 vs 47.5 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | MIA 13, LV 27 | LV -3 | Las Vegas Raiders by 11 | 40 vs 40.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | GB 22, MIN 39 | MIN -1.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 15.5 | 61 vs 46.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | WAS 22, PHI 24 | PHI -6 | Washington Commanders by 4 | 46 vs 43.5 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@New York Giants | Sun | DAL 20, NYG 28 | DAL -3 | New York Giants by 11 | 48 vs 47.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Kansas City Chiefs | Mon | DEN 10, KC 31 | KC -2.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 18.5 | 41 vs 42.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 1, 2026 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.