The Bills are 3-0 against the spread this season (2-0 at home, 1-0 on the road) and 45-39-3 (53.6%) since 2021. Since 2021, Trifecta's model has put 22 Buffalo Bills games in its weekly Top 5. When it backed the Bills against the spread it went 6-0 (100.0%). When it picked their opponent it went 9-7 (56.2%). Every one of those picks is graded below. Team-level samples are small, so read them as a log, not a forecast.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Final | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots@Buffalo Bills | Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | - | BUF -7 |
Open the game page → Both teams' records against the spread, every meeting since 2021 and the DFS game environment.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Final | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills@Los Angeles Rams | Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET | - | LA -2.5 |
Open the game page → Both teams' records against the spread, every meeting since 2021 and the DFS game environment.
All regular-season games, not just Trifecta's picks. Live standings: NFL ATS standings.
| Season | ATS | Cover % | Home | Away | As favorite | As underdog | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3-0 | 100.0% | 2-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | - | +3.0 |
| 2025 | 8-9 | 47.1% | 4-5 | 4-4 | 6-9 | 2-0 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 10-7 | 58.8% | 5-3 | 5-4 | 8-5 | 2-2 | +5.3 |
| 2023 | 7-10 | 41.2% | 4-4 | 3-5 | 6-8 | 1-2 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 8-7-1 | 53.3% | 3-4 | 4-3-1 | 8-7-1 | - | +3.3 |
| 2021 | 9-6-2 | 60.0% | 4-3-2 | 5-3 | 7-5-2 | 2-1 | +3.2 |
| Since 2021 | 45-39-3 | 53.6% | 22-19-2 | 22-19-1 | 38-34-3 | 7-5 |
| Season | Backed the Bills | Faced the Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| 2024 | 3-0 | 2-2 |
| 2023 | 1-0 | 3-0 |
| 2022 | 1-0 | 1-3 |
| 2021 | - | 2-1 |
| Week | Matchup | Line | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Wk 8 | BUF @ CAR | CAR +7.0 | CAR | Wrong |
| 2025 Wk 4 | NO @ BUF | BUF -15.5 | NO | Correct |
| 2025 Wk 1 | BAL @ BUF | BUF +1.5 | BUF | Correct |
| 2024 Wk 15 | BUF @ DET | DET -2.5 | BUF | Correct |
| 2024 Wk 14 | BUF @ LA | LA +3.5 | LA | Correct |
| 2024 Wk 13 | SF @ BUF | BUF -6.5 | SF | Wrong |
| 2024 Wk 8 | BUF @ SEA | SEA +3.0 | SEA | Wrong |
| 2024 Wk 6 | BUF @ NYJ | NYJ +1.0 | BUF | Correct |
| 2024 Wk 3 | JAX @ BUF | BUF -4.0 | BUF | Correct |
| 2024 Wk 1 | ARI @ BUF | BUF -6.5 | ARI | Correct |
| 2023 Wk 16 | BUF @ LAC | LAC +13.0 | LAC | Correct |
| 2023 Wk 9 | BUF @ CIN | CIN -1.5 | CIN | Correct |
| 2023 Wk 6 | NYG @ BUF | BUF -15.5 | NYG | Correct |
| 2023 Wk 4 | MIA @ BUF | BUF -2.5 | BUF | Correct |
| 2022 Wk 13 | BUF @ NE | NE +3.5 | BUF | Correct |
| 2022 Wk 6 | BUF @ KC | KC +2.5 | KC | Wrong |
| 2022 Wk 3 | BUF @ MIA | MIA +4.0 | MIA | Correct |
| 2022 Wk 2 | TEN @ BUF | BUF -10.0 | TEN | Wrong |
| 2022 Wk 1 | BUF @ LA | LA +1.0 | LA | Wrong |
| 2021 Wk 14 | BUF @ TB | TB -3.5 | TB | Correct |
| 2021 Wk 10 | BUF @ NYJ | NYJ +13.0 | NYJ | Wrong |
| 2021 Wk 9 | BUF @ JAX | JAX +14.5 | JAX | Correct |
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
All 32 teams → · NFL Stats → · Full track record →
Only games that made Trifecta's weekly Top 5 appear in the pick tables, so those are not every Bills game; the ATS record at the top of the page covers every game. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.