Favorites went 6-8-2 against the spread (42.9%) and home teams 9-5-2 (64.3%). 7 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Jacksonville Jaguars beat the number by 26 points in NE @ JAX. Games finished 8 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line. Click a game for its page, or a team for its page.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons@Green Bay Packers | Thu | ATL 35, GB 14 | GB -4.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 25.5 | 49 vs 43.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Buffalo Bills | Sun | LAC 16, BUF 24 | BUF -7 | Buffalo Bills by 1 | 40 vs 50.5 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Cleveland Browns | Sun | CAR 18, CLE 21 | CAR -2.5 | Cleveland Browns by 5.5 | 39 vs 41.5 Under |
| New York Jets@Detroit Lions | Sun | NYJ 24, DET 31 | DET -7 | Push | 55 vs 49.5 Over |
| Houston Texans@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | HOU 17, IND 19 | HOU -1.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 3.5 | 36 vs 41.5 Under |
| New England Patriots@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | NE 6, JAX 35 | JAX -3 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 | 41 vs 46.5 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Miami Dolphins | Sun | KC 24, MIA 10 | KC -10 | Kansas City Chiefs by 4 | 34 vs 45.5 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@New York Giants | Sun | TEN 7, NYG 12 | NYG -2.5 | New York Giants by 2.5 | 19 vs 37.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | CIN 27, PIT 30 | CIN -3.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 6.5 | 57 vs 42.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Washington Commanders | Sun | SEA 31, WAS 33 | SEA -7.5 | Washington Commanders by 9.5 | 64 vs 40.5 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | ARI 30, SF 36 | SF -7.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 1.5 | 66 vs 48.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | MIN 23, TB 16 | MIN -1.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 5.5 | 39 vs 42.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | BAL 34, DAL 31 | BAL -3 | Push | 65 vs 53.5 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@New Orleans Saints | Sun | LV 35, NO 27 | NO -3.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 11.5 | 62 vs 43.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Denver Broncos | Sun | LA 26, DEN 30 | DEN -1.5 | Denver Broncos by 2.5 | 56 vs 43.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Chicago Bears | Mon | PHI 7, CHI 27 | PHI -3.5 | Chicago Bears by 23.5 | 34 vs 42.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 3, 2026 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.