Favorites went 5-9 against the spread (35.7%) and home teams 5-9 (35.7%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Seattle Seahawks beat the number by 21.5 points in SEA @ WAS. Games finished 7 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens@Miami Dolphins | Thu | BAL 28, MIA 6 | BAL -7.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 14.5 | 34 vs 51.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | CHI 47, CIN 42 | CHI -3 | Chicago Bears by 2 | 89 vs 51.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions | Sun | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET -9.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 12.5 | 51 vs 47.5 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers | Sun | CAR 16, GB 13 | GB -12.5 | Carolina Panthers by 15.5 | 29 vs 43.5 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Houston Texans | Sun | DEN 18, HOU 15 | HOU -1.5 | Denver Broncos by 4.5 | 33 vs 40.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@New England Patriots | Sun | ATL 23, NE 24 | NE -5.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 4.5 | 47 vs 45.5 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@New York Giants | Sun | SF 34, NYG 24 | SF -2.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 7.5 | 58 vs 47.5 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | IND 20, PIT 27 | IND -3.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 10.5 | 47 vs 51.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Tennessee Titans | Sun | LAC 27, TEN 20 | LAC -10 | Tennessee Titans by 3 | 47 vs 44.5 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | NO 10, LA 34 | LA -14 | Los Angeles Rams by 10 | 44 vs 44.5 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | JAX 30, LV 29 | JAX -2.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 1.5 | 59 vs 43.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Buffalo Bills | Sun | KC 21, BUF 28 | KC -2.5 | Buffalo Bills by 9.5 | 49 vs 53.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Washington Commanders | Sun | SEA 38, WAS 14 | SEA -2.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 21.5 | 52 vs 47.5 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys | Mon | ARI 27, DAL 17 | DAL -3.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 13.5 | 44 vs 53.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 9, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.