Favorites went 5-9 against the spread (35.7%) and home teams 5-9 (35.7%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Miami Dolphins beat the number by 25.5 points in BUF @ MIA. Games finished 7 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders@Denver Broncos | Thu | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN -9.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 6.5 | 17 vs 42.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | ATL 25, IND 31 | IND -6.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 0.5 | 56 vs 48.5 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Carolina Panthers | Sun | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR -5.5 | New Orleans Saints by 15.5 | 24 vs 38.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Chicago Bears | Sun | NYG 20, CHI 24 | CHI -4.5 | New York Giants by 0.5 | 44 vs 45.5 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Houston Texans | Sun | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX -1.5 | Houston Texans by 8.5 | 65 vs 37.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@Miami Dolphins | Sun | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF -8.5 | Miami Dolphins by 25.5 | 43 vs 50.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | BAL 27, MIN 19 | BAL -4.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 3.5 | 46 vs 48.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@New York Jets | Sun | CLE 20, NYJ 27 | CLE -1.5 | New York Jets by 8.5 | 47 vs 37.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | NE 28, TB 23 | TB -2.5 | New England Patriots by 7.5 | 51 vs 48.5 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | ARI 22, SEA 44 | SEA -7 | Seattle Seahawks by 15 | 66 vs 44.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | LA 42, SF 26 | LA -5.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 10.5 | 68 vs 49.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Washington Commanders | Sun | DET 44, WAS 22 | DET -8.5 | Detroit Lions by 13.5 | 66 vs 49.5 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | PIT 10, LAC 25 | LAC -3 | Los Angeles Chargers by 12 | 35 vs 45.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Green Bay Packers | Mon | PHI 10, GB 7 | GB -1.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 4.5 | 17 vs 45.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 10, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.