Favorites went 7-8 against the spread (46.7%) and home teams 10-5 (66.7%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Jacksonville Jaguars beat the number by 32 points in LAC @ JAX. Games finished 6 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets@New England Patriots | Thu | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE -12.5 | New England Patriots by 0.5 | 41 vs 43.5 Under |
| Washington Commanders@Miami Dolphins | Sun | WAS 13, MIA 16 | MIA -2.5 | Miami Dolphins by 0.5 | 29 vs 47.5 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | CAR 30, ATL 27 | ATL -4.5 | Carolina Panthers by 7.5 | 57 vs 42.5 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Buffalo Bills | Sun | TB 32, BUF 44 | BUF -6 | Buffalo Bills by 6 | 76 vs 46.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | LAC 6, JAX 35 | LAC -3 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 | 41 vs 43.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | CHI 19, MIN 17 | MIN -3 | Chicago Bears by 5 | 36 vs 47.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@New York Giants | Sun | GB 27, NYG 20 | GB -7.5 | New York Giants by 0.5 | 47 vs 41.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT -5.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 16.5 | 46 vs 48.5 Under |
| Houston Texans@Tennessee Titans | Sun | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU -5.5 | Tennessee Titans by 2.5 | 29 vs 37.5 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF -3.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 15.5 | 63 vs 48.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | SEA 19, LA 21 | LA -3 | Seattle Seahawks by 1 | 40 vs 49.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Cleveland Browns | Sun | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL -7.5 | Cleveland Browns by 0.5 | 39 vs 37.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos | Sun | KC 19, DEN 22 | KC -3.5 | Denver Broncos by 6.5 | 41 vs 44.5 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | DET 9, PHI 16 | PHI -2.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 4.5 | 25 vs 46.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Las Vegas Raiders | Mon | DAL 33, LV 16 | DAL -3.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 13.5 | 49 vs 48.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 11, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.