Favorites went 4-9-1 against the spread (30.8%) and home teams 7-6-1 (53.8%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Los Angeles Rams beat the number by 20 points in TB @ LA. Games finished 4 over and 10 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills@Houston Texans | Thu | BUF 19, HOU 23 | BUF -5.5 | Houston Texans by 9.5 | 42 vs 43.5 Under |
| New York Jets@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | NYJ 10, BAL 23 | BAL -14 | New York Jets by 1 | 33 vs 44.5 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Chicago Bears | Sun | PIT 28, CHI 31 | CHI -3 | Push | 59 vs 46.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | NE 26, CIN 20 | NE -7.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 1.5 | 46 vs 50.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Detroit Lions | Sun | NYG 27, DET 34 | DET -14 | New York Giants by 7 | 61 vs 50.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Green Bay Packers | Sun | MIN 6, GB 23 | GB -6.5 | Green Bay Packers by 10.5 | 29 vs 41.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | IND 20, KC 23 | KC -3.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 0.5 | 43 vs 50.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Tennessee Titans | Sun | SEA 30, TEN 24 | SEA -12.5 | Tennessee Titans by 6.5 | 54 vs 41.5 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | JAX 27, ARI 24 | JAX -2.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 0.5 | 51 vs 47.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | CLE 24, LV 10 | LV -3 | Cleveland Browns by 17 | 34 vs 35.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | PHI 21, DAL 24 | PHI -3 | Dallas Cowboys by 6 | 45 vs 47.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@New Orleans Saints | Sun | ATL 24, NO 10 | NO -1.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 15.5 | 34 vs 41.5 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | TB 7, LA 34 | LA -7 | Los Angeles Rams by 20 | 41 vs 49.5 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@San Francisco 49ers | Mon | CAR 9, SF 20 | SF -7.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 3.5 | 29 vs 48.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 12, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.