Favorites went 6-10 against the spread (37.5%) and home teams 7-9 (43.8%). 7 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Cincinnati Bengals beat the number by 25 points in CIN @ BAL. Games finished 7 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers@Detroit Lions | Thu | GB 31, DET 24 | DET -2.5 | Green Bay Packers by 9.5 | 55 vs 48.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Dallas Cowboys | Thu | KC 28, DAL 31 | KC -3.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 6.5 | 59 vs 53.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Baltimore Ravens | Thu | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL -7 | Cincinnati Bengals by 25 | 46 vs 52.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Philadelphia Eagles | Fri | CHI 24, PHI 15 | PHI -7 | Chicago Bears by 16 | 39 vs 43.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@Carolina Panthers | Sun | LA 28, CAR 31 | LA -10 | Carolina Panthers by 13 | 59 vs 44.5 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Cleveland Browns | Sun | SF 26, CLE 8 | SF -5.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 12.5 | 34 vs 35.5 Under |
| Houston Texans@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND -3 | Houston Texans by 7 | 36 vs 44.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Miami Dolphins | Sun | NO 17, MIA 21 | MIA -5.5 | New Orleans Saints by 1.5 | 38 vs 41.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@New York Jets | Sun | ATL 24, NYJ 27 | ATL -3 | New York Jets by 6 | 51 vs 38.5 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | ARI 17, TB 20 | TB -4.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 1.5 | 37 vs 44.5 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Tennessee Titans | Sun | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX -6 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 | 28 vs 42.5 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | MIN 0, SEA 26 | SEA -12.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 13.5 | 26 vs 42.5 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC -10 | Los Angeles Chargers by 7 | 45 vs 40.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | BUF 26, PIT 7 | BUF -3 | Buffalo Bills by 16 | 33 vs 44.5 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Washington Commanders | Sun | DEN 27, WAS 26 | DEN -6.5 | Washington Commanders by 5.5 | 53 vs 43.5 Over |
| New York Giants@New England Patriots | Mon | NYG 15, NE 33 | NE -7 | New England Patriots by 11 | 48 vs 46.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 13, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.