Favorites went 5-9 against the spread (35.7%) and home teams 6-8 (42.9%). 7 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Minnesota Vikings beat the number by 32.5 points in WAS @ MIN. Games finished 11 over and 3 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys@Detroit Lions | Thu | DAL 30, DET 44 | DET -3.5 | Detroit Lions by 10.5 | 74 vs 55.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | SEA 37, ATL 9 | SEA -7 | Seattle Seahawks by 21 | 46 vs 44.5 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL -5.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 10.5 | 49 vs 43.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Buffalo Bills | Sun | CIN 34, BUF 39 | BUF -6 | Cincinnati Bengals by 1 | 73 vs 54.5 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Cleveland Browns | Sun | TEN 31, CLE 29 | CLE -4.5 | Tennessee Titans by 6.5 | 60 vs 33.5 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | IND 19, JAX 36 | IND -2.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 19.5 | 55 vs 44.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | WAS 0, MIN 31 | WAS -1.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 32.5 | 31 vs 43.5 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@New York Jets | Sun | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA -2.5 | Miami Dolphins by 21.5 | 44 vs 41.5 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | NO 24, TB 20 | TB -7.5 | New Orleans Saints by 11.5 | 44 vs 41.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN -8.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 1.5 | 41 vs 40.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | LA 45, ARI 17 | LA -9.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 18.5 | 62 vs 49.5 Over |
| Chicago Bears@Green Bay Packers | Sun | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB -6.5 | Green Bay Packers by 0.5 | 49 vs 44.5 Over |
| Houston Texans@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | HOU 20, KC 10 | KC -4.5 | Houston Texans by 14.5 | 30 vs 41.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Los Angeles Chargers | Mon | PHI 19, LAC 22 | PHI -1.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 4.5 | 41 vs 41.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 14, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.