Favorites went 9-7 against the spread (56.2%) and home teams 9-7 (56.2%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Baltimore Ravens beat the number by 21.5 points in BAL @ CIN. Games finished 10 over and 6 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Thu | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB -6 | Atlanta Falcons by 7 | 57 vs 43.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Chicago Bears | Sun | CLE 3, CHI 31 | CHI -7.5 | Chicago Bears by 20.5 | 34 vs 38.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL -2.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 21.5 | 24 vs 51.5 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Houston Texans | Sun | ARI 20, HOU 40 | HOU -10.5 | Houston Texans by 9.5 | 60 vs 42.5 Over |
| New York Jets@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | NYJ 20, JAX 48 | JAX -13.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 14.5 | 68 vs 40.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | LAC 16, KC 13 | KC -5.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 8.5 | 29 vs 41.5 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@New England Patriots | Sun | BUF 35, NE 31 | BUF -2.5 | Buffalo Bills by 1.5 | 66 vs 49.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@New York Giants | Sun | WAS 29, NYG 21 | NYG -2.5 | Washington Commanders by 10.5 | 50 vs 46.5 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | LV 0, PHI 31 | PHI -12.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 18.5 | 31 vs 37.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Denver Broncos | Sun | GB 26, DEN 34 | GB -1.5 | Denver Broncos by 9.5 | 60 vs 42.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | DET 34, LA 41 | LA -5.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 1.5 | 75 vs 54.5 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@New Orleans Saints | Sun | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR -2.5 | New Orleans Saints by 5.5 | 37 vs 41.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | IND 16, SEA 18 | SEA -13.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 11.5 | 34 vs 41.5 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | TEN 24, SF 37 | SF -12.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 0.5 | 61 vs 44.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | MIN 34, DAL 26 | DAL -5.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 13.5 | 60 vs 47.5 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@Pittsburgh Steelers | Mon | MIA 15, PIT 28 | PIT -3 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 | 43 vs 42.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 15, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.