Favorites went 7-9 against the spread (43.8%) and home teams 5-11 (31.2%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Cincinnati Bengals beat the number by 20.5 points in CIN @ MIA. Games finished 10 over and 6 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams@Seattle Seahawks | Thu | LA 37, SEA 38 | SEA -1.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 0.5 | 75 vs 42.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders | Sat | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI -7 | Philadelphia Eagles by 4 | 47 vs 43.5 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@Chicago Bears | Sat | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI -1.5 | Chicago Bears by 4.5 | 38 vs 45.5 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Carolina Panthers | Sun | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB -3 | Carolina Panthers by 6 | 43 vs 44.5 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@Cleveland Browns | Sun | BUF 23, CLE 20 | BUF -10.5 | Cleveland Browns by 7.5 | 43 vs 41.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | LAC 34, DAL 17 | DAL -1.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 18.5 | 51 vs 50.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Miami Dolphins | Sun | CIN 45, MIA 21 | CIN -3.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 20.5 | 66 vs 48.5 Over |
| New York Jets@New Orleans Saints | Sun | NYJ 6, NO 29 | NO -6.5 | New Orleans Saints by 16.5 | 35 vs 39.5 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@New York Giants | Sun | MIN 16, NYG 13 | MIN -2.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 0.5 | 29 vs 41.5 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Tennessee Titans | Sun | KC 9, TEN 26 | KC -3.5 | Tennessee Titans by 20.5 | 35 vs 37.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | ATL 26, ARI 19 | ATL -2.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 4.5 | 45 vs 48.5 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Denver Broncos | Sun | JAX 34, DEN 20 | DEN -3.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 17.5 | 54 vs 46.5 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Detroit Lions | Sun | PIT 29, DET 24 | DET -7.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 12.5 | 53 vs 52.5 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Houston Texans | Sun | LV 21, HOU 23 | HOU -14.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 12.5 | 44 vs 39.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | NE 28, BAL 24 | BAL -3.5 | New England Patriots by 7.5 | 52 vs 48.5 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Indianapolis Colts | Mon | SF 48, IND 27 | SF -4.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 16.5 | 75 vs 46.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 16, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.