Favorites went 7-9 against the spread (43.8%) and home teams 8-8 (50.0%). 7 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New York Giants beat the number by 21 points in NYG @ LV. Games finished 7 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys@Washington Commanders | Thu | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL -8.5 | Washington Commanders by 1.5 | 53 vs 50.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Minnesota Vikings | Thu | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET -7 | Minnesota Vikings by 20 | 33 vs 45.5 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Kansas City Chiefs | Thu | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN -13.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 6.5 | 33 vs 37.5 Under |
| Houston Texans@Los Angeles Chargers | Sat | HOU 20, LAC 16 | LAC -1.5 | Houston Texans by 5.5 | 36 vs 40.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Green Bay Packers | Sat | BAL 41, GB 24 | GB -2.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 19.5 | 65 vs 38.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Carolina Panthers | Sun | SEA 27, CAR 10 | SEA -6.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 10.5 | 37 vs 42.5 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | ARI 14, CIN 37 | CIN -7 | Cincinnati Bengals by 16 | 51 vs 52.5 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Cleveland Browns | Sun | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT -4.5 | Cleveland Browns by 11.5 | 19 vs 35.5 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX -3.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 2.5 | 40 vs 48.5 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Miami Dolphins | Sun | TB 17, MIA 20 | TB -5.5 | Miami Dolphins by 8.5 | 37 vs 44.5 Under |
| New England Patriots@New York Jets | Sun | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE -12.5 | New England Patriots by 19.5 | 52 vs 42.5 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Tennessee Titans | Sun | NO 34, TEN 26 | NO -1.5 | New Orleans Saints by 6.5 | 60 vs 39.5 Over |
| New York Giants@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | NYG 34, LV 10 | NYG -3 | New York Giants by 21 | 44 vs 40.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Buffalo Bills | Sun | PHI 13, BUF 12 | BUF -3 | Philadelphia Eagles by 4 | 25 vs 45.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | CHI 38, SF 42 | SF -3.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 0.5 | 80 vs 51.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Atlanta Falcons | Mon | LA 24, ATL 27 | LA -7.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 10.5 | 51 vs 48.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 17, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.