Favorites went 7-9 against the spread (43.8%) and home teams 9-7 (56.2%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Jacksonville Jaguars beat the number by 21.5 points in TEN @ JAX. Games finished 8 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sat | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB -3 | Carolina Panthers by 1 | 30 vs 43.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@San Francisco 49ers | Sat | SEA 13, SF 3 | SEA -2.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 7.5 | 16 vs 47.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL -4.5 | New Orleans Saints by 2.5 | 36 vs 43.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | CLE 20, CIN 18 | CIN -9.5 | Cleveland Browns by 11.5 | 38 vs 47.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Houston Texans | Sun | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU -9.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 1.5 | 68 vs 37.5 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX -12.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 21.5 | 48 vs 46.5 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | GB 3, MIN 16 | MIN -12.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 0.5 | 19 vs 37.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@New York Giants | Sun | DAL 17, NYG 34 | DAL -3 | New York Giants by 20 | 51 vs 50.5 Over |
| New York Jets@Buffalo Bills | Sun | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF -12.5 | Buffalo Bills by 14.5 | 43 vs 39.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Chicago Bears | Sun | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI -3.5 | Detroit Lions by 6.5 | 35 vs 51.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Denver Broncos | Sun | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN -14.5 | Denver Broncos by 1.5 | 22 vs 37.5 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | ARI 20, LA 37 | LA -14.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 2.5 | 57 vs 49.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | KC 12, LV 14 | KC -3.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 5.5 | 26 vs 36.5 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@New England Patriots | Sun | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE -14 | New England Patriots by 14 | 48 vs 44.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI -3 | Washington Commanders by 10 | 41 vs 38.5 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | BAL 24, PIT 26 | BAL -4.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 6.5 | 50 vs 41.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 18, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.