Favorites went 11-2 against the spread (84.6%) and home teams 8-5 (61.5%). 2 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Miami Dolphins beat the number by 31 points in MIA @ ATL. Games finished 9 over and 4 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings@Los Angeles Chargers | Thu | MIN 10, LAC 37 | LAC -3 | Los Angeles Chargers by 24 | 47 vs 45.5 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | MIA 34, ATL 10 | ATL -7 | Miami Dolphins by 31 | 44 vs 44.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | CHI 16, BAL 30 | BAL -2.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 11.5 | 46 vs 45.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@Carolina Panthers | Sun | BUF 40, CAR 9 | BUF -7 | Buffalo Bills by 24 | 49 vs 47.5 Over |
| New York Jets@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | NYJ 39, CIN 38 | CIN -5.5 | New York Jets by 6.5 | 77 vs 43.5 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Houston Texans | Sun | SF 15, HOU 26 | HOU -2.5 | Houston Texans by 8.5 | 41 vs 41.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@New England Patriots | Sun | CLE 13, NE 32 | NE -7 | New England Patriots by 12 | 45 vs 40.5 Over |
| New York Giants@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | NYG 20, PHI 38 | PHI -7 | Philadelphia Eagles by 11 | 58 vs 43.5 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New Orleans Saints | Sun | TB 23, NO 3 | TB -4.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15.5 | 26 vs 46.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Denver Broncos | Sun | DAL 24, DEN 44 | DEN -3.5 | Denver Broncos by 16.5 | 68 vs 51.5 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND -15.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 8.5 | 52 vs 47.5 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | GB 35, PIT 25 | GB -3 | Green Bay Packers by 7 | 60 vs 46.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Kansas City Chiefs | Mon | WAS 7, KC 28 | KC -10.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 10.5 | 35 vs 48.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 8, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.