Favorites went 10-5 against the spread (66.7%) and home teams 9-6 (60.0%). 3 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Los Angeles Rams beat the number by 25 points in LA @ JAX. Games finished 9 over and 6 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Cincinnati Bengals | Thu | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT -5.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 7.5 | 64 vs 45.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | LA 35, JAX 7 | LA -3 | Los Angeles Rams by 25 | 42 vs 44.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Chicago Bears | Sun | NO 14, CHI 26 | CHI -4.5 | Chicago Bears by 7.5 | 40 vs 43.5 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Cleveland Browns | Sun | MIA 6, CLE 31 | CLE -2.5 | Cleveland Browns by 22.5 | 37 vs 34.5 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | LV 0, KC 31 | KC -13.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 17.5 | 31 vs 44.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | PHI 28, MIN 22 | PHI -2.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 3.5 | 50 vs 43.5 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@New York Jets | Sun | CAR 13, NYJ 6 | NYJ -1.5 | Carolina Panthers by 8.5 | 19 vs 39.5 Under |
| New England Patriots@Tennessee Titans | Sun | NE 31, TEN 13 | NE -6.5 | New England Patriots by 11.5 | 44 vs 40.5 Over |
| New York Giants@Denver Broncos | Sun | NYG 32, DEN 33 | DEN -7.5 | New York Giants by 6.5 | 65 vs 39.5 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | IND 38, LAC 24 | LAC -2.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 16.5 | 62 vs 48.5 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | GB 27, ARI 23 | GB -7 | Arizona Cardinals by 3 | 50 vs 44.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL -1.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 20.5 | 66 vs 54.5 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | ATL 10, SF 20 | SF -1.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 8.5 | 30 vs 46.5 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Detroit Lions | Mon | TB 9, DET 24 | DET -6 | Detroit Lions by 9 | 33 vs 54.5 Under |
| Houston Texans@Seattle Seahawks | Mon | HOU 19, SEA 27 | SEA -3 | Seattle Seahawks by 5 | 46 vs 41.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 7, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.