Favorites went 7-8 against the spread (46.7%) and home teams 9-6 (60.0%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New York Giants beat the number by 24 points in PHI @ NYG. Games finished 6 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles@New York Giants | Thu | PHI 17, NYG 34 | PHI -7 | New York Giants by 24 | 51 vs 40.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@New York Jets | Sun | DEN 13, NYJ 11 | DEN -7.5 | New York Jets by 5.5 | 24 vs 43.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | LA 17, BAL 3 | LA -7 | Los Angeles Rams by 7 | 20 vs 43.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Carolina Panthers | Sun | DAL 27, CAR 30 | DAL -3 | Carolina Panthers by 6 | 57 vs 47.5 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | ARI 27, IND 31 | IND -8.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 4.5 | 58 vs 46.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | SEA 20, JAX 12 | SEA -1.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 6.5 | 32 vs 47.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Miami Dolphins | Sun | LAC 29, MIA 27 | LAC -3.5 | Miami Dolphins by 1.5 | 56 vs 45.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@New Orleans Saints | Sun | NE 25, NO 19 | NE -3.5 | New England Patriots by 2.5 | 44 vs 46.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT -5.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 8.5 | 32 vs 37.5 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | TEN 10, LV 20 | LV -3.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 6.5 | 30 vs 41.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Green Bay Packers | Sun | CIN 18, GB 27 | GB -14 | Cincinnati Bengals by 5 | 45 vs 44.5 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | SF 19, TB 30 | TB -3.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7.5 | 49 vs 46.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | DET 17, KC 30 | KC -2.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 10.5 | 47 vs 51.5 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@Atlanta Falcons | Mon | BUF 14, ATL 24 | BUF -3.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 13.5 | 38 vs 49.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Washington Commanders | Mon | CHI 25, WAS 24 | WAS -5.5 | Chicago Bears by 6.5 | 49 vs 49.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 6, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.