Favorites went 5-9 against the spread (35.7%) and home teams 4-10 (28.6%). 9 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Houston Texans beat the number by 31.5 points in HOU @ BAL. Games finished 9 over and 5 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers@Los Angeles Rams | Thu | SF 26, LA 23 | LA -8.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 11.5 | 49 vs 43.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Cleveland Browns | Sun | MIN 21, CLE 17 | MIN -3.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 0.5 | 38 vs 35.5 Over |
| Houston Texans@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | HOU 44, BAL 10 | HOU -2.5 | Houston Texans by 31.5 | 54 vs 41.5 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@Carolina Panthers | Sun | MIA 24, CAR 27 | MIA -1.5 | Carolina Panthers by 4.5 | 51 vs 44.5 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | LV 6, IND 40 | IND -7 | Indianapolis Colts by 27 | 46 vs 46.5 Under |
| New York Giants@New Orleans Saints | Sun | NYG 14, NO 26 | NO -1.5 | New Orleans Saints by 10.5 | 40 vs 41.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@New York Jets | Sun | DAL 37, NYJ 22 | NYJ -1.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 16.5 | 59 vs 48.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | DEN 21, PHI 17 | PHI -3.5 | Denver Broncos by 7.5 | 38 vs 44.5 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | TEN 22, ARI 21 | ARI -7.5 | Tennessee Titans by 8.5 | 43 vs 41.5 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | TB 38, SEA 35 | SEA -3.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6.5 | 73 vs 44.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | DET 37, CIN 24 | DET -10.5 | Detroit Lions by 2.5 | 61 vs 49.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | WAS 27, LAC 10 | LAC -2.5 | Washington Commanders by 19.5 | 37 vs 47.5 Under |
| New England Patriots@Buffalo Bills | Sun | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF -7.5 | New England Patriots by 10.5 | 43 vs 49.5 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Jacksonville Jaguars | Mon | KC 28, JAX 31 | KC -3.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 6.5 | 59 vs 45.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 5, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.