Favorites went 9-7 against the spread (56.2%) and home teams 11-5 (68.8%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New England Patriots beat the number by 23.5 points in CAR @ NE. Games finished 10 over and 6 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks@Arizona Cardinals | Thu | SEA 23, ARI 20 | SEA -1.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 1.5 | 43 vs 43.5 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | MIN 21, PIT 24 | MIN -2.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 5.5 | 45 vs 41.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | WAS 27, ATL 34 | ATL -2.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 4.5 | 61 vs 43.5 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Buffalo Bills | Sun | NO 19, BUF 31 | BUF -15.5 | New Orleans Saints by 3.5 | 50 vs 48.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Detroit Lions | Sun | CLE 10, DET 34 | DET -10 | Detroit Lions by 14 | 44 vs 44.5 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Houston Texans | Sun | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU -7.5 | Houston Texans by 18.5 | 26 vs 39.5 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@New England Patriots | Sun | CAR 13, NE 42 | NE -5.5 | New England Patriots by 23.5 | 55 vs 42.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@New York Giants | Sun | LAC 18, NYG 21 | LAC -6 | New York Giants by 9 | 39 vs 43.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | PHI 31, TB 25 | PHI -3.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 2.5 | 56 vs 44.5 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | IND 20, LA 27 | LA -3.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 3.5 | 47 vs 49.5 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | JAX 26, SF 21 | SF -3.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 8.5 | 47 vs 45.5 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | BAL 20, KC 37 | BAL -2.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 19.5 | 57 vs 48.5 Over |
| Chicago Bears@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | CHI 25, LV 24 | LV -1.5 | Chicago Bears by 2.5 | 49 vs 47.5 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | GB 40, DAL 40 | GB -7 | Dallas Cowboys by 7 | 80 vs 47.5 Over |
| New York Jets@Miami Dolphins | Mon | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA -2.5 | Miami Dolphins by 3.5 | 48 vs 44.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Denver Broncos | Mon | CIN 3, DEN 28 | DEN -7.5 | Denver Broncos by 17.5 | 31 vs 44.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 4, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.