Favorites went 9-7 against the spread (56.2%) and home teams 9-7 (56.2%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Carolina Panthers beat the number by 35.5 points in ATL @ CAR. Games finished 8 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins@Buffalo Bills | Thu | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF -12.5 | Miami Dolphins by 2.5 | 52 vs 50.5 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@Carolina Panthers | Sun | ATL 0, CAR 30 | ATL -5.5 | Carolina Panthers by 35.5 | 30 vs 44.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Cleveland Browns | Sun | GB 10, CLE 13 | GB -8.5 | Cleveland Browns by 11.5 | 23 vs 41.5 Under |
| Houston Texans@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX -1.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 5.5 | 27 vs 43.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | CIN 10, MIN 48 | MIN -3 | Minnesota Vikings by 35 | 58 vs 41.5 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@New England Patriots | Sun | PIT 21, NE 14 | PIT -1.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 5.5 | 35 vs 44.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | LA 26, PHI 33 | PHI -3.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 3.5 | 59 vs 45.5 Over |
| New York Jets@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | NYJ 27, TB 29 | TB -6.5 | New York Jets by 4.5 | 56 vs 43.5 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Tennessee Titans | Sun | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND -6 | Indianapolis Colts by 15 | 61 vs 43.5 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Washington Commanders | Sun | LV 24, WAS 41 | WAS -2.5 | Washington Commanders by 14.5 | 65 vs 43.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC -2.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 0.5 | 43 vs 45.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | NO 13, SEA 44 | SEA -7.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 23.5 | 57 vs 41.5 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Chicago Bears | Sun | DAL 14, CHI 31 | DAL -1.5 | Chicago Bears by 18.5 | 45 vs 49.5 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | ARI 15, SF 16 | SF -1.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 0.5 | 31 vs 44.5 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@New York Giants | Sun | KC 22, NYG 9 | KC -6 | Kansas City Chiefs by 7 | 31 vs 44.5 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Baltimore Ravens | Mon | DET 38, BAL 30 | BAL -4.5 | Detroit Lions by 12.5 | 68 vs 53.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 3, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.