Favorites went 9-7 against the spread (56.2%) and home teams 5-11 (31.2%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Detroit Lions beat the number by 25 points in CHI @ DET. Games finished 10 over and 6 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders@Green Bay Packers | Thu | WAS 18, GB 27 | GB -3.5 | Green Bay Packers by 5.5 | 45 vs 48.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL -12.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 11.5 | 58 vs 46.5 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | JAX 27, CIN 31 | CIN -3.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 0.5 | 58 vs 49.5 Over |
| New York Giants@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | NYG 37, DAL 40 | DAL -4.5 | New York Giants by 1.5 | 77 vs 44.5 Over |
| Chicago Bears@Detroit Lions | Sun | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET -6 | Detroit Lions by 25 | 73 vs 46.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins | Sun | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA -1.5 | New England Patriots by 7.5 | 60 vs 43.5 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@New Orleans Saints | Sun | SF 26, NO 21 | SF -3 | San Francisco 49ers by 2 | 47 vs 40.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@New York Jets | Sun | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF -6 | Buffalo Bills by 14 | 40 vs 47.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | SEA 31, PIT 17 | PIT -3.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 17.5 | 48 vs 40.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Tennessee Titans | Sun | LA 33, TEN 19 | LA -5.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 8.5 | 52 vs 41.5 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | CAR 22, ARI 27 | ARI -7 | Carolina Panthers by 2 | 49 vs 45.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | DEN 28, IND 29 | DEN -2.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 3.5 | 57 vs 43.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | PHI 20, KC 17 | PHI -1.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 1.5 | 37 vs 46.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | ATL 22, MIN 6 | MIN -3.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 19.5 | 28 vs 44.5 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Houston Texans | Mon | TB 20, HOU 19 | HOU -2.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3.5 | 39 vs 42.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Las Vegas Raiders | Mon | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC -3.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 7.5 | 29 vs 46.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 2, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.