Favorites went 9-7 against the spread (56.2%) and home teams 9-7 (56.2%). 3 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Indianapolis Colts beat the number by 23.5 points in MIA @ IND. Games finished 4 over and 12 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys@Philadelphia Eagles | Thu | DAL 20, PHI 24 | PHI -8.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 4.5 | 44 vs 47.5 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Los Angeles Chargers | Fri | KC 21, LAC 27 | KC -3 | Los Angeles Chargers by 9 | 48 vs 47.5 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB -1.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1.5 | 43 vs 47.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Cleveland Browns | Sun | CIN 17, CLE 16 | CIN -5.5 | Cleveland Browns by 4.5 | 33 vs 47.5 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | MIA 8, IND 33 | IND -1.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 23.5 | 41 vs 47.5 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | CAR 10, JAX 26 | JAX -4.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 11.5 | 36 vs 45.5 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@New England Patriots | Sun | LV 20, NE 13 | NE -2.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 9.5 | 33 vs 44.5 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@New Orleans Saints | Sun | ARI 20, NO 13 | ARI -6 | Arizona Cardinals by 1 | 33 vs 44.5 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@New York Jets | Sun | PIT 34, NYJ 32 | PIT -3 | New York Jets by 1 | 66 vs 37.5 Over |
| New York Giants@Washington Commanders | Sun | NYG 6, WAS 21 | WAS -6 | Washington Commanders by 9 | 27 vs 45.5 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Denver Broncos | Sun | TEN 12, DEN 20 | DEN -8.5 | Tennessee Titans by 0.5 | 32 vs 42.5 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | SF 17, SEA 13 | SF -2.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 1.5 | 30 vs 43.5 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Green Bay Packers | Sun | DET 13, GB 27 | GB -1.5 | Green Bay Packers by 12.5 | 40 vs 48.5 Under |
| Houston Texans@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | HOU 9, LA 14 | LA -3.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 1.5 | 23 vs 43.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills | Sun | BAL 40, BUF 41 | BAL -1.5 | Buffalo Bills by 2.5 | 81 vs 50.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Chicago Bears | Mon | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN -1.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 1.5 | 51 vs 43.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 1, 2025 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.