Favorites went 10-4-1 against the spread (71.4%) and home teams 7-7-1 (50.0%). 1 underdog won outright. The biggest cover: Baltimore Ravens beat the number by 22 points in DEN @ BAL. Games finished 7 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans@New York Jets | Thu | HOU 13, NYJ 21 | NYJ -2.5 | New York Jets by 5.5 | 34 vs 43.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | DAL 21, ATL 27 | ATL -3 | Atlanta Falcons by 3 | 48 vs 52 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | DEN 10, BAL 41 | BAL -9 | Baltimore Ravens by 22 | 51 vs 46.5 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@Buffalo Bills | Sun | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF -6.5 | Miami Dolphins by 3.5 | 57 vs 49 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Carolina Panthers | Sun | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO -7 | Carolina Panthers by 8 | 45 vs 43.5 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | LV 24, CIN 41 | CIN -8 | Cincinnati Bengals by 9 | 65 vs 45 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Cleveland Browns | Sun | LAC 27, CLE 10 | LAC -2 | Los Angeles Chargers by 15 | 37 vs 42.5 Under |
| Washington Commanders@New York Giants | Sun | WAS 27, NYG 22 | WAS -4.5 | Washington Commanders by 0.5 | 49 vs 44.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@Tennessee Titans | Sun | NE 17, TEN 20 | TEN -3 | Push | 37 vs 38.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | CHI 9, ARI 29 | ARI -1.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 18.5 | 38 vs 44.5 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | JAX 23, PHI 28 | PHI -7.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 2.5 | 51 vs 46 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Green Bay Packers | Sun | DET 24, GB 14 | DET -2.5 | Detroit Lions by 7.5 | 38 vs 47.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | LA 26, SEA 20 | LA -1.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 4.5 | 46 vs 48.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | IND 13, MIN 21 | MIN -6.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 1.5 | 34 vs 47 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Kansas City Chiefs | Mon | TB 24, KC 30 | KC -9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 | 54 vs 45.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 9, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.