Favorites went 8-8 against the spread (50.0%) and home teams 11-5 (68.8%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Detroit Lions beat the number by 25.5 points in TEN @ DET. Games finished 12 over and 4 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings@Los Angeles Rams | Thu | MIN 20, LA 30 | MIN -3 | Los Angeles Rams by 13 | 50 vs 47.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | PHI 37, CIN 17 | CIN -2.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 22.5 | 54 vs 47.5 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Cleveland Browns | Sun | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL -7.5 | Cleveland Browns by 12.5 | 53 vs 44.5 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Detroit Lions | Sun | TEN 14, DET 52 | DET -12.5 | Detroit Lions by 25.5 | 66 vs 45 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Houston Texans | Sun | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU -5 | Indianapolis Colts by 2 | 43 vs 45 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | GB 30, JAX 27 | GB -3.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 0.5 | 57 vs 49 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@Miami Dolphins | Sun | ARI 28, MIA 27 | MIA -4 | Arizona Cardinals by 5 | 55 vs 46.5 Over |
| New York Jets@New England Patriots | Sun | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ -7 | New England Patriots by 10 | 47 vs 41 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | ATL 31, TB 26 | ATL -1.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 3.5 | 57 vs 47 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | NO 8, LAC 26 | LAC -7 | Los Angeles Chargers by 11 | 34 vs 41.5 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | BUF 31, SEA 10 | BUF -3 | Buffalo Bills by 18 | 41 vs 45.5 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Denver Broncos | Sun | CAR 14, DEN 28 | DEN -13 | Denver Broncos by 1 | 42 vs 40.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | KC 27, LV 20 | KC -9 | Las Vegas Raiders by 2 | 47 vs 42 Over |
| Chicago Bears@Washington Commanders | Sun | CHI 15, WAS 18 | WAS -1.5 | Washington Commanders by 1.5 | 33 vs 46.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | DAL 24, SF 30 | SF -5.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 0.5 | 54 vs 48 Over |
| New York Giants@Pittsburgh Steelers | Mon | NYG 18, PIT 26 | PIT -6 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 | 44 vs 37.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 8, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.