Favorites went 8-7 against the spread (53.3%) and home teams 6-9 (40.0%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Pittsburgh Steelers beat the number by 25 points in NYJ @ PIT. Games finished 6 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos@New Orleans Saints | Thu | DEN 33, NO 10 | DEN -2.5 | Denver Broncos by 20.5 | 43 vs 37 Over |
| New England Patriots@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | NE 16, JAX 32 | JAX -6.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 9.5 | 48 vs 42 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | SEA 34, ATL 14 | ATL -3 | Seattle Seahawks by 23 | 48 vs 51.5 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Buffalo Bills | Sun | TEN 10, BUF 34 | BUF -9.5 | Buffalo Bills by 14.5 | 44 vs 41 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Cleveland Browns | Sun | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN -5.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 1.5 | 35 vs 42 Under |
| Houston Texans@Green Bay Packers | Sun | HOU 22, GB 24 | GB -3 | Houston Texans by 1 | 46 vs 48 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | MIA 10, IND 16 | IND -3 | Indianapolis Colts by 3 | 26 vs 44 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | DET 31, MIN 29 | MIN -1 | Detroit Lions by 3 | 60 vs 50.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@New York Giants | Sun | PHI 28, NYG 3 | PHI -3 | Philadelphia Eagles by 22 | 31 vs 42 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | LV 15, LA 20 | LA -7 | Las Vegas Raiders by 2 | 35 vs 43 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Washington Commanders | Sun | CAR 7, WAS 40 | WAS -10 | Washington Commanders by 23 | 47 vs 51 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | KC 28, SF 18 | SF -2.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 12.5 | 46 vs 47.5 Under |
| New York Jets@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | NYJ 15, PIT 37 | NYJ -3 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 | 52 vs 40 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Mon | BAL 41, TB 31 | BAL -4.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 5.5 | 72 vs 51 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Arizona Cardinals | Mon | LAC 15, ARI 17 | LAC -1 | Arizona Cardinals by 3 | 32 vs 44 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 7, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.