Favorites went 11-3 against the spread (78.6%) and home teams 3-11 (21.4%). 2 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Detroit Lions beat the number by 34.5 points in DET @ DAL. Games finished 10 over and 3 under the total (1 push).
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers@Seattle Seahawks | Thu | SF 36, SEA 24 | SF -3.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 8.5 | 60 vs 49 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Chicago Bears | Sun | JAX 16, CHI 35 | JAX -1.5 | Chicago Bears by 20.5 | 51 vs 44.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | WAS 23, BAL 30 | BAL -6.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 0.5 | 53 vs 51.5 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@Green Bay Packers | Sun | ARI 13, GB 34 | GB -5.5 | Green Bay Packers by 15.5 | 47 vs 47 Push |
| Houston Texans@New England Patriots | Sun | HOU 41, NE 21 | HOU -6.5 | Houston Texans by 13.5 | 62 vs 38.5 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New Orleans Saints | Sun | TB 51, NO 27 | TB -3.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20.5 | 78 vs 42.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | CLE 16, PHI 20 | PHI -8 | Cleveland Browns by 4 | 36 vs 42 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Tennessee Titans | Sun | IND 20, TEN 17 | TEN -2.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 5.5 | 37 vs 42 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Denver Broncos | Sun | LAC 23, DEN 16 | LAC -3 | Los Angeles Chargers by 4 | 39 vs 37 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | PIT 32, LV 13 | PIT -3.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 15.5 | 45 vs 36.5 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@Carolina Panthers | Sun | ATL 38, CAR 20 | ATL -6 | Atlanta Falcons by 12 | 58 vs 45.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | DET 47, DAL 9 | DET -3.5 | Detroit Lions by 34.5 | 56 vs 52.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@New York Giants | Sun | CIN 17, NYG 7 | CIN -4.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 5.5 | 24 vs 46 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@New York Jets | Mon | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF -1 | Buffalo Bills by 2 | 43 vs 42 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 6, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.