Favorites went 10-4 against the spread (71.4%) and home teams 7-7 (50.0%). 3 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Chicago Bears beat the number by 22 points in CAR @ CHI. Games finished 7 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Atlanta Falcons | Thu | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL -2.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 3.5 | 66 vs 44 Over |
| New York Jets@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | NYJ 17, MIN 23 | MIN -2.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 3.5 | 40 vs 42 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Chicago Bears | Sun | CAR 10, CHI 36 | CHI -4 | Chicago Bears by 22 | 46 vs 40 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL -2.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 0.5 | 79 vs 48.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@Houston Texans | Sun | BUF 20, HOU 23 | HOU -1 | Houston Texans by 2 | 43 vs 48 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | IND 34, JAX 37 | JAX -3.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 0.5 | 71 vs 45 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@New England Patriots | Sun | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA -2 | Miami Dolphins by 3 | 25 vs 37 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Washington Commanders | Sun | CLE 13, WAS 34 | WAS -3 | Washington Commanders by 18 | 47 vs 44 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Denver Broncos | Sun | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN -3 | Denver Broncos by 13 | 52 vs 36 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF -7 | Arizona Cardinals by 8 | 47 vs 48.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | GB 24, LA 19 | GB -3 | Green Bay Packers by 2 | 43 vs 49.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | NYG 29, SEA 20 | SEA -7 | New York Giants by 16 | 49 vs 42.5 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | DAL 20, PIT 17 | PIT -2.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 5.5 | 37 vs 43.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Kansas City Chiefs | Mon | NO 13, KC 26 | KC -5.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 7.5 | 39 vs 43 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 5, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.