Favorites went 5-11 against the spread (31.2%) and home teams 9-7 (56.2%). 7 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Washington Commanders beat the number by 31.5 points in WAS @ ARI. Games finished 10 over and 6 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys@New York Giants | Thu | DAL 20, NYG 15 | DAL -5.5 | New York Giants by 0.5 | 35 vs 45 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | NO 24, ATL 26 | ATL -2.5 | New Orleans Saints by 0.5 | 50 vs 41.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Carolina Panthers | Sun | CIN 34, CAR 24 | CIN -4.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 5.5 | 58 vs 47 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Chicago Bears | Sun | LA 18, CHI 24 | CHI -3 | Chicago Bears by 3 | 42 vs 40 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Green Bay Packers | Sun | MIN 31, GB 29 | GB -2.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 4.5 | 60 vs 44 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Houston Texans | Sun | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU -5.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 1.5 | 44 vs 44.5 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | PIT 24, IND 27 | PIT -2.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 5.5 | 51 vs 40 Over |
| Denver Broncos@New York Jets | Sun | DEN 10, NYJ 9 | NYJ -7.5 | Denver Broncos by 8.5 | 19 vs 39.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | PHI 16, TB 33 | PHI -1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 | 49 vs 42 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | WAS 42, ARI 14 | ARI -3.5 | Washington Commanders by 31.5 | 56 vs 49 Over |
| New England Patriots@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | NE 13, SF 30 | SF -10.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 6.5 | 43 vs 41.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | KC 17, LAC 10 | KC -7.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 0.5 | 27 vs 41.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | CLE 16, LV 20 | CLE -2.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 6.5 | 36 vs 36.5 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | BUF 10, BAL 35 | BAL -2.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 22.5 | 45 vs 46.5 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Miami Dolphins | Mon | TEN 31, MIA 12 | MIA -2.5 | Tennessee Titans by 21.5 | 43 vs 37 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Detroit Lions | Mon | SEA 29, DET 42 | DET -3.5 | Detroit Lions by 9.5 | 71 vs 46.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 4, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.