Favorites went 8-8 against the spread (50.0%) and home teams 7-9 (43.8%). 8 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Buffalo Bills beat the number by 33 points in JAX @ BUF. Games finished 6 over and 10 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots@New York Jets | Thu | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ -6.5 | New York Jets by 14.5 | 27 vs 39 Under |
| New York Giants@Cleveland Browns | Sun | NYG 21, CLE 15 | CLE -6.5 | New York Giants by 12.5 | 36 vs 38 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | CHI 16, IND 21 | IND -1.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 3.5 | 37 vs 43 Under |
| Houston Texans@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | HOU 7, MIN 34 | HOU -2 | Minnesota Vikings by 29 | 41 vs 46 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@New Orleans Saints | Sun | PHI 15, NO 12 | NO -2.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 5.5 | 27 vs 49 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | LAC 10, PIT 20 | PIT -3 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 | 30 vs 36 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | DEN 26, TB 7 | TB -6 | Denver Broncos by 25 | 33 vs 40.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Tennessee Titans | Sun | GB 30, TEN 14 | TEN -3 | Green Bay Packers by 19 | 44 vs 37 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | CAR 36, LV 22 | LV -5.5 | Carolina Panthers by 19.5 | 58 vs 40 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | MIA 3, SEA 24 | SEA -4 | Seattle Seahawks by 17 | 27 vs 41.5 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | DET 20, ARI 13 | DET -3 | Detroit Lions by 4 | 33 vs 51.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | BAL 28, DAL 25 | BAL -1.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 1.5 | 53 vs 47.5 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | SF 24, LA 27 | SF -6 | Los Angeles Rams by 9 | 51 vs 44.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | KC 22, ATL 17 | KC -3 | Kansas City Chiefs by 2 | 39 vs 46 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Buffalo Bills | Mon | JAX 10, BUF 47 | BUF -4 | Buffalo Bills by 33 | 57 vs 46.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Cincinnati Bengals | Mon | WAS 38, CIN 33 | CIN -7.5 | Washington Commanders by 12.5 | 71 vs 46 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 3, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.