Favorites went 4-11-1 against the spread (26.7%) and home teams 5-10-1 (33.3%). 9 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Arizona Cardinals beat the number by 32 points in LA @ ARI. Games finished 5 over and 11 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills@Miami Dolphins | Thu | BUF 31, MIA 10 | MIA -2.5 | Buffalo Bills by 23.5 | 41 vs 48.5 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | LV 26, BAL 23 | BAL -9 | Las Vegas Raiders by 12 | 49 vs 41 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Carolina Panthers | Sun | LAC 26, CAR 3 | LAC -5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 18 | 29 vs 39 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | NO 44, DAL 19 | DAL -6.5 | New Orleans Saints by 31.5 | 63 vs 47 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Detroit Lions | Sun | TB 20, DET 16 | DET -7.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11.5 | 36 vs 51.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Green Bay Packers | Sun | IND 10, GB 16 | IND -3 | Green Bay Packers by 9 | 26 vs 41.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | CLE 18, JAX 13 | JAX -3 | Cleveland Browns by 8 | 31 vs 41.5 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | SF 17, MIN 23 | SF -4.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 10.5 | 40 vs 46.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@New England Patriots | Sun | SEA 23, NE 20 | SEA -3.5 | New England Patriots by 0.5 | 43 vs 39 Over |
| New York Jets@Tennessee Titans | Sun | NYJ 24, TEN 17 | NYJ -3.5 | New York Jets by 3.5 | 41 vs 41.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Washington Commanders | Sun | NYG 18, WAS 21 | WAS -1.5 | Washington Commanders by 1.5 | 39 vs 42.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | LA 10, ARI 41 | LA -1 | Arizona Cardinals by 32 | 51 vs 47.5 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Denver Broncos | Sun | PIT 13, DEN 6 | PIT -3 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 | 19 vs 36.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | CIN 25, KC 26 | KC -6.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 5.5 | 51 vs 47.5 Over |
| Chicago Bears@Houston Texans | Sun | CHI 13, HOU 19 | HOU -6 | Push | 32 vs 45.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Philadelphia Eagles | Mon | ATL 22, PHI 21 | PHI -5.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 6.5 | 43 vs 46.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 2, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.