Favorites went 9-7 against the spread (56.2%) and home teams 9-7 (56.2%). 3 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New Orleans Saints beat the number by 33.5 points in CAR @ NO. Games finished 9 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens@Kansas City Chiefs | Thu | BAL 20, KC 27 | KC -3 | Kansas City Chiefs by 4 | 47 vs 46 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@Philadelphia Eagles | Fri | GB 29, PHI 34 | PHI -2 | Philadelphia Eagles by 3 | 63 vs 49.5 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | PIT 18, ATL 10 | ATL -4 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 | 28 vs 43 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Buffalo Bills | Sun | ARI 28, BUF 34 | BUF -6.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 0.5 | 62 vs 46 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Chicago Bears | Sun | TEN 17, CHI 24 | CHI -4 | Chicago Bears by 3 | 41 vs 43 Under |
| New England Patriots@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | NE 16, CIN 10 | CIN -8 | New England Patriots by 14 | 26 vs 40.5 Under |
| Houston Texans@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | HOU 29, IND 27 | HOU -3 | Indianapolis Colts by 1 | 56 vs 49 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Miami Dolphins | Sun | JAX 17, MIA 20 | MIA -3.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 0.5 | 37 vs 49.5 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@New Orleans Saints | Sun | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO -3.5 | New Orleans Saints by 33.5 | 57 vs 41.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@New York Giants | Sun | MIN 28, NYG 6 | MIN -1 | Minnesota Vikings by 21 | 34 vs 42.5 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | LV 10, LAC 22 | LAC -3 | Los Angeles Chargers by 9 | 32 vs 41 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | DEN 20, SEA 26 | SEA -6.5 | Denver Broncos by 0.5 | 46 vs 42 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Cleveland Browns | Sun | DAL 33, CLE 17 | CLE -2.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 18.5 | 50 vs 42 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | WAS 20, TB 37 | TB -4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 | 57 vs 42 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Detroit Lions | Sun | LA 20, DET 26 | DET -5 | Detroit Lions by 1 | 46 vs 54 Under |
| New York Jets@San Francisco 49ers | Mon | NYJ 19, SF 32 | SF -3.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 9.5 | 51 vs 43 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 1, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.