Favorites went 3-11 against the spread (21.4%) and home teams 7-7 (50.0%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Arizona Cardinals beat the number by 27 points in NYJ @ ARI. Games finished 4 over and 9 under the total (1 push).
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals@Baltimore Ravens | Thu | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL -6 | Cincinnati Bengals by 5 | 69 vs 53 Over |
| New York Giants@Carolina Panthers | Sun | NYG 17, CAR 20 | NYG -6.5 | Carolina Panthers by 9.5 | 37 vs 40.5 Under |
| New England Patriots@Chicago Bears | Sun | NE 19, CHI 3 | CHI -6.5 | New England Patriots by 22.5 | 22 vs 37.5 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | BUF 30, IND 20 | BUF -4.5 | Buffalo Bills by 5.5 | 50 vs 46.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | MIN 12, JAX 7 | MIN -7 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 | 19 vs 42.5 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC -7.5 | Denver Broncos by 5.5 | 30 vs 42.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@New Orleans Saints | Sun | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL -3.5 | New Orleans Saints by 6.5 | 37 vs 46.5 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | SF 23, TB 20 | SF -6.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3.5 | 43 vs 50.5 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Washington Commanders | Sun | PIT 28, WAS 27 | WAS -1.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 2.5 | 55 vs 45 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | TEN 17, LAC 27 | LAC -8 | Los Angeles Chargers by 2 | 44 vs 40 Over |
| New York Jets@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | NYJ 6, ARI 31 | NYJ -2 | Arizona Cardinals by 27 | 37 vs 45.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | PHI 34, DAL 6 | PHI -7.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 20.5 | 40 vs 44.5 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Houston Texans | Sun | DET 26, HOU 23 | DET -4.5 | Houston Texans by 1.5 | 49 vs 49 Push |
| Miami Dolphins@Los Angeles Rams | Mon | MIA 23, LA 15 | LA -2.5 | Miami Dolphins by 10.5 | 38 vs 49.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 10, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.