Favorites went 9-5 against the spread (64.3%) and home teams 9-5 (64.3%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Detroit Lions beat the number by 32 points in JAX @ DET. Games finished 8 over and 6 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders@Philadelphia Eagles | Thu | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI -4.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 3.5 | 44 vs 49.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Chicago Bears | Sun | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB -6 | Chicago Bears by 5 | 39 vs 41 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Detroit Lions | Sun | JAX 6, DET 52 | DET -14 | Detroit Lions by 32 | 58 vs 47.5 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Miami Dolphins | Sun | LV 19, MIA 34 | MIA -8 | Miami Dolphins by 7 | 53 vs 43.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@New England Patriots | Sun | LA 28, NE 22 | LA -4 | Los Angeles Rams by 2 | 50 vs 42.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@New Orleans Saints | Sun | CLE 14, NO 35 | CLE -1 | New Orleans Saints by 22 | 49 vs 44 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@New York Jets | Sun | IND 28, NYJ 27 | NYJ -4 | Indianapolis Colts by 5 | 55 vs 43 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL -3 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 | 34 vs 48 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Tennessee Titans | Sun | MIN 23, TEN 13 | MIN -6 | Minnesota Vikings by 4 | 36 vs 40 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Denver Broncos | Sun | ATL 6, DEN 38 | DEN -2 | Denver Broncos by 30 | 44 vs 44.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | SEA 20, SF 17 | SF -6 | Seattle Seahawks by 9 | 37 vs 49 Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Buffalo Bills | Sun | KC 21, BUF 30 | BUF -2.5 | Buffalo Bills by 6.5 | 51 vs 46.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | CIN 27, LAC 34 | LAC -1 | Los Angeles Chargers by 6 | 61 vs 48 Over |
| Houston Texans@Dallas Cowboys | Mon | HOU 34, DAL 10 | HOU -7.5 | Houston Texans by 16.5 | 44 vs 41.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 11, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.