Favorites went 7-5-1 against the spread (58.3%) and home teams 5-7-1 (41.7%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Green Bay Packers beat the number by 21.5 points in SF @ GB. Games finished 10 over and 3 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Cleveland Browns | Thu | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT -3.5 | Cleveland Browns by 8.5 | 43 vs 36.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Carolina Panthers | Sun | KC 30, CAR 27 | KC -11 | Carolina Panthers by 8 | 57 vs 43 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Chicago Bears | Sun | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN -3 | Push | 57 vs 39.5 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Houston Texans | Sun | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU -8 | Tennessee Titans by 13 | 59 vs 40.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | DET 24, IND 6 | DET -7 | Detroit Lions by 11 | 30 vs 50.5 Under |
| New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins | Sun | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA -7.5 | Miami Dolphins by 11.5 | 49 vs 46 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New York Giants | Sun | TB 30, NYG 7 | TB -6.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16.5 | 37 vs 40.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Washington Commanders | Sun | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS -10.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 18.5 | 60 vs 45 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN -6.5 | Denver Broncos by 3.5 | 48 vs 41.5 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Green Bay Packers | Sun | SF 10, GB 38 | GB -6.5 | Green Bay Packers by 21.5 | 48 vs 44.5 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | ARI 6, SEA 16 | ARI -1 | Seattle Seahawks by 11 | 22 vs 46.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | PHI 37, LA 20 | PHI -3 | Philadelphia Eagles by 14 | 57 vs 49 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Los Angeles Chargers | Mon | BAL 30, LAC 23 | BAL -3 | Baltimore Ravens by 4 | 53 vs 51 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 12, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.