Favorites went 7-9 against the spread (43.8%) and home teams 8-8 (50.0%). 3 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Buffalo Bills beat the number by 18.5 points in SF @ BUF. Games finished 7 over and 8 under the total (1 push).
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears@Detroit Lions | Thu | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET -9.5 | Chicago Bears by 6.5 | 43 vs 47.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Dallas Cowboys | Thu | NYG 20, DAL 27 | DAL -4.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 2.5 | 47 vs 39 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@Green Bay Packers | Thu | MIA 17, GB 30 | GB -3.5 | Green Bay Packers by 9.5 | 47 vs 47.5 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Kansas City Chiefs | Fri | LV 17, KC 19 | KC -13.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 11.5 | 36 vs 42 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | LAC 17, ATL 13 | LAC -1 | Los Angeles Chargers by 3 | 30 vs 47 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | PIT 44, CIN 38 | CIN -3 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 | 82 vs 46 Over |
| Houston Texans@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU -3.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 0.5 | 43 vs 44.5 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | ARI 22, MIN 23 | MIN -3.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 2.5 | 45 vs 45.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@New England Patriots | Sun | IND 25, NE 24 | IND -2.5 | New England Patriots by 1.5 | 49 vs 41.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@New York Jets | Sun | SEA 26, NYJ 21 | NYJ -1 | Seattle Seahawks by 6 | 47 vs 41.5 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Washington Commanders | Sun | TEN 19, WAS 42 | WAS -6 | Washington Commanders by 17 | 61 vs 45 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Carolina Panthers | Sun | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB -6.5 | Carolina Panthers by 3.5 | 49 vs 46 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@New Orleans Saints | Sun | LA 21, NO 14 | LA -2.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 4.5 | 35 vs 48.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | PHI 24, BAL 19 | BAL -3 | Philadelphia Eagles by 8 | 43 vs 50 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Buffalo Bills | Sun | SF 10, BUF 35 | BUF -6.5 | Buffalo Bills by 18.5 | 45 vs 45 Push |
| Cleveland Browns@Denver Broncos | Mon | CLE 32, DEN 41 | DEN -6.5 | Denver Broncos by 2.5 | 73 vs 41.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 13, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.