Favorites went 5-7-1 against the spread (41.7%) and home teams 6-6-1 (50.0%). 3 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: San Francisco 49ers beat the number by 22 points in CHI @ SF. Games finished 6 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers@Detroit Lions | Thu | GB 31, DET 34 | DET -3 | Push | 65 vs 53 Over |
| New York Jets@Miami Dolphins | Sun | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA -6.5 | New York Jets by 0.5 | 58 vs 45 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | ATL 21, MIN 42 | MIN -6 | Minnesota Vikings by 15 | 63 vs 46.5 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@New York Giants | Sun | NO 14, NYG 11 | NO -5.5 | New York Giants by 2.5 | 25 vs 41 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | CAR 16, PHI 22 | PHI -14 | Carolina Panthers by 8 | 38 vs 44.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT -6 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 | 41 vs 43 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | LV 13, TB 28 | TB -7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 | 41 vs 47 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Tennessee Titans | Sun | JAX 10, TEN 6 | TEN -3 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 | 16 vs 40 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | SEA 30, ARI 18 | ARI -3 | Seattle Seahawks by 15 | 48 vs 45.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | BUF 42, LA 44 | BUF -3.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 5.5 | 86 vs 49.5 Over |
| Chicago Bears@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | CHI 13, SF 38 | SF -3 | San Francisco 49ers by 22 | 51 vs 43.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | LAC 17, KC 19 | KC -5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 3 | 36 vs 43.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Dallas Cowboys | Mon | CIN 27, DAL 20 | CIN -5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 2 | 47 vs 51 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 14, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.