Favorites went 10-6 against the spread (62.5%) and home teams 7-9 (43.8%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the number by 26 points in TB @ LAC. Games finished 8 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams@San Francisco 49ers | Thu | LA 12, SF 6 | SF -3 | Los Angeles Rams by 9 | 18 vs 48.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Carolina Panthers | Sun | DAL 30, CAR 14 | CAR -2.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 18.5 | 44 vs 42 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Cleveland Browns | Sun | KC 21, CLE 7 | KC -4.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 9.5 | 28 vs 41.5 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Houston Texans | Sun | MIA 12, HOU 20 | HOU -2.5 | Houston Texans by 5.5 | 32 vs 46.5 Under |
| New York Jets@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | NYJ 32, JAX 25 | NYJ -3.5 | New York Jets by 3.5 | 57 vs 41.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@New Orleans Saints | Sun | WAS 20, NO 19 | WAS -7.5 | New Orleans Saints by 6.5 | 39 vs 44.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@New York Giants | Sun | BAL 35, NYG 14 | BAL -16.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 4.5 | 49 vs 43.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Tennessee Titans | Sun | CIN 37, TEN 27 | CIN -6 | Cincinnati Bengals by 4 | 64 vs 46.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | NE 17, ARI 30 | ARI -6 | Arizona Cardinals by 7 | 47 vs 46.5 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Denver Broncos | Sun | IND 13, DEN 31 | DEN -4.5 | Denver Broncos by 13.5 | 44 vs 43.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@Detroit Lions | Sun | BUF 48, DET 42 | DET -2.5 | Buffalo Bills by 8.5 | 90 vs 55.5 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | TB 40, LAC 17 | LAC -3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 | 57 vs 46 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | PIT 13, PHI 27 | PHI -5.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 8.5 | 40 vs 43 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | GB 30, SEA 13 | GB -3 | Green Bay Packers by 14 | 43 vs 48 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Minnesota Vikings | Mon | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN -7 | Minnesota Vikings by 11 | 42 vs 43.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Las Vegas Raiders | Mon | ATL 15, LV 9 | ATL -6.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 0.5 | 24 vs 44.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 15, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.