Favorites went 11-5 against the spread (68.8%) and home teams 12-4 (75.0%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Green Bay Packers beat the number by 20 points in NO @ GB. Games finished 10 over and 6 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos@Los Angeles Chargers | Thu | DEN 27, LAC 34 | LAC -3 | Los Angeles Chargers by 4 | 61 vs 41.5 Over |
| Houston Texans@Kansas City Chiefs | Sat | HOU 19, KC 27 | KC -3.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 4.5 | 46 vs 42.5 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Baltimore Ravens | Sat | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL -7 | Baltimore Ravens by 10 | 51 vs 44.5 Over |
| New York Giants@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | NYG 7, ATL 34 | ATL -9.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 17.5 | 41 vs 42.5 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Carolina Panthers | Sun | ARI 30, CAR 36 | ARI -5.5 | Carolina Panthers by 11.5 | 66 vs 47 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Chicago Bears | Sun | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET -7 | Detroit Lions by 10 | 51 vs 47.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN -10 | Cincinnati Bengals by 8 | 30 vs 46.5 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND -4 | Indianapolis Colts by 4 | 68 vs 42.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@New York Jets | Sun | LA 19, NYJ 9 | LA -3 | Los Angeles Rams by 7 | 28 vs 47 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders | Sun | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI -4 | Washington Commanders by 7 | 69 vs 47 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | MIN 27, SEA 24 | MIN -2.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 0.5 | 51 vs 43 Over |
| New England Patriots@Buffalo Bills | Sun | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF -14 | New England Patriots by 11 | 45 vs 48 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | JAX 14, LV 19 | LV -2.5 | Las Vegas Raiders by 2.5 | 33 vs 41.5 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Miami Dolphins | Sun | SF 17, MIA 29 | SF -2 | Miami Dolphins by 14 | 46 vs 44 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | TB 24, DAL 26 | TB -4.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 6.5 | 50 vs 47.5 Over |
| New Orleans Saints@Green Bay Packers | Mon | NO 0, GB 34 | GB -14 | Green Bay Packers by 20 | 34 vs 44 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 16, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.