Favorites went 11-5 against the spread (68.8%) and home teams 9-7 (56.2%). 3 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Los Angeles Chargers beat the number by 27 points in LAC @ NE. Games finished 9 over and 7 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs@Pittsburgh Steelers | Wed | KC 29, PIT 10 | KC -3 | Kansas City Chiefs by 16 | 39 vs 43.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Houston Texans | Wed | BAL 31, HOU 2 | BAL -5.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 23.5 | 33 vs 46.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Chicago Bears | Thu | SEA 6, CHI 3 | SEA -3.5 | Chicago Bears by 0.5 | 9 vs 43.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@New England Patriots | Sat | LAC 40, NE 7 | LAC -6 | Los Angeles Chargers by 27 | 47 vs 42 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Cincinnati Bengals | Sat | DEN 24, CIN 30 | CIN -3.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 2.5 | 54 vs 50.5 Over |
| Arizona Cardinals@Los Angeles Rams | Sat | ARI 9, LA 13 | LA -6.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 2.5 | 22 vs 48 Under |
| New York Jets@Buffalo Bills | Sun | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF -10 | Buffalo Bills by 16 | 54 vs 44.5 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | TEN 13, JAX 20 | TEN -1 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 | 33 vs 38 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@New Orleans Saints | Sun | LV 25, NO 10 | LV -2 | Las Vegas Raiders by 13 | 35 vs 37.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@New York Giants | Sun | IND 33, NYG 45 | IND -7.5 | New York Giants by 19.5 | 78 vs 40.5 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | DAL 7, PHI 41 | PHI -7.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 26.5 | 48 vs 37.5 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB -9.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24.5 | 62 vs 47.5 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@Cleveland Browns | Sun | MIA 20, CLE 3 | MIA -3 | Miami Dolphins by 14 | 23 vs 32.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | GB 25, MIN 27 | GB -1 | Minnesota Vikings by 3 | 52 vs 49 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@Washington Commanders | Sun | ATL 24, WAS 30 | WAS -3.5 | Washington Commanders by 2.5 | 54 vs 46.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@San Francisco 49ers | Mon | DET 40, SF 34 | DET -4 | Detroit Lions by 2 | 74 vs 50.5 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 17, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.