Favorites went 7-9 against the spread (43.8%) and home teams 10-6 (62.5%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Denver Broncos beat the number by 27.5 points in KC @ DEN. Games finished 11 over and 5 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns@Baltimore Ravens | Sat | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL -19.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 5.5 | 45 vs 42.5 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sat | CIN 19, PIT 17 | CIN -2.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 0.5 | 36 vs 48.5 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | CAR 44, ATL 38 | ATL -7.5 | Carolina Panthers by 13.5 | 82 vs 48.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | WAS 23, DAL 19 | WAS -7 | Dallas Cowboys by 3 | 42 vs 43.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Green Bay Packers | Sun | CHI 24, GB 22 | GB -10 | Chicago Bears by 12 | 46 vs 41.5 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND -3.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 0.5 | 49 vs 45.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@New England Patriots | Sun | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF -3 | New England Patriots by 10 | 39 vs 36.5 Over |
| New York Giants@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | NYG 13, PHI 20 | PHI -3 | Philadelphia Eagles by 4 | 33 vs 36.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | NO 19, TB 27 | TB -14.5 | New Orleans Saints by 6.5 | 46 vs 44.5 Over |
| Houston Texans@Tennessee Titans | Sun | HOU 23, TEN 14 | TEN -2.5 | Houston Texans by 11.5 | 37 vs 36.5 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI -4.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 18.5 | 71 vs 42.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos | Sun | KC 0, DEN 38 | DEN -10.5 | Denver Broncos by 27.5 | 38 vs 40.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | SEA 30, LA 25 | SEA -7.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 2.5 | 55 vs 38.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC -7 | Los Angeles Chargers by 7 | 54 vs 42.5 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@New York Jets | Sun | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | NYJ -1.5 | New York Jets by 10.5 | 52 vs 39.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions | Sun | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET -3 | Detroit Lions by 19 | 40 vs 56.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 18, 2024 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.