Favorites went 10-4 against the spread (71.4%) and home teams 8-6 (57.1%). 2 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Baltimore Ravens beat the number by 28 points in SEA @ BAL. Games finished 3 over and 11 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans@Pittsburgh Steelers | Thu | TEN 16, PIT 20 | PIT -3.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 0.5 | 36 vs 37 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | MIA 14, KC 21 | KC -1 | Kansas City Chiefs by 6 | 35 vs 51 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | MIN 31, ATL 28 | ATL -3.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 6.5 | 59 vs 38.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | SEA 3, BAL 37 | BAL -6 | Baltimore Ravens by 28 | 40 vs 44.5 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Cleveland Browns | Sun | ARI 0, CLE 27 | CLE -13 | Cleveland Browns by 14 | 27 vs 38 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@Green Bay Packers | Sun | LA 3, GB 20 | GB -3.5 | Green Bay Packers by 13.5 | 23 vs 38 Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Houston Texans | Sun | TB 37, HOU 39 | HOU -2.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 0.5 | 76 vs 39.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@New England Patriots | Sun | WAS 20, NE 17 | NE -2.5 | Washington Commanders by 5.5 | 37 vs 40.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@New Orleans Saints | Sun | CHI 17, NO 24 | NO -9 | Chicago Bears by 2 | 41 vs 42 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Carolina Panthers | Sun | IND 27, CAR 13 | IND -1.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 12.5 | 40 vs 45 Under |
| New York Giants@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | NYG 6, LV 30 | LV -1 | Las Vegas Raiders by 23 | 36 vs 38.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | DAL 23, PHI 28 | PHI -3.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 1.5 | 51 vs 46.5 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | BUF 18, CIN 24 | CIN -1.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 4.5 | 42 vs 51 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@New York Jets | Mon | LAC 27, NYJ 6 | LAC -3 | Los Angeles Chargers by 18 | 33 vs 41 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 9, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.