Favorites went 7-6-3 against the spread (53.8%) and home teams 8-5-3 (61.5%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Denver Broncos beat the number by 22 points in KC @ DEN. Games finished 8 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Buffalo Bills | Thu | TB 18, BUF 24 | BUF -10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 | 42 vs 43 Under |
| Houston Texans@Carolina Panthers | Sun | HOU 13, CAR 15 | HOU -3 | Carolina Panthers by 5 | 28 vs 43 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | LA 20, DAL 43 | DAL -6.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 16.5 | 63 vs 44.5 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Green Bay Packers | Sun | MIN 24, GB 10 | MIN -1 | Minnesota Vikings by 13 | 34 vs 41.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | NO 38, IND 27 | NO -2 | New Orleans Saints by 9 | 65 vs 43.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins | Sun | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA -7.5 | Miami Dolphins by 6.5 | 48 vs 46.5 Over |
| New York Jets@New York Giants | Sun | NYJ 13, NYG 10 | NYJ -3 | Push | 23 vs 35 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | JAX 20, PIT 10 | JAX -2.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 7.5 | 30 vs 41 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Tennessee Titans | Sun | ATL 23, TEN 28 | ATL -2.5 | Tennessee Titans by 7.5 | 51 vs 35 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders | Sun | PHI 38, WAS 31 | PHI -7 | Push | 69 vs 42.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | CLE 20, SEA 24 | SEA -4 | Push | 44 vs 39.5 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | BAL 31, ARI 24 | BAL -9.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 2.5 | 55 vs 44.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos | Sun | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC -7 | Denver Broncos by 22 | 33 vs 45.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | CIN 31, SF 17 | SF -4 | Cincinnati Bengals by 18 | 48 vs 44 Over |
| Chicago Bears@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | CHI 13, LAC 30 | LAC -9.5 | Los Angeles Chargers by 7.5 | 43 vs 46 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Detroit Lions | Mon | LV 14, DET 26 | DET -7 | Detroit Lions by 5 | 40 vs 46 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 8, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.