Favorites went 5-8 against the spread (38.5%) and home teams 10-3 (76.9%). 7 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Baltimore Ravens beat the number by 29 points in DET @ BAL. Games finished 5 over and 8 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars@New Orleans Saints | Thu | JAX 31, NO 24 | NO -2.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 9.5 | 55 vs 41 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | DET 6, BAL 38 | BAL -3 | Baltimore Ravens by 29 | 44 vs 43.5 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Chicago Bears | Sun | LV 12, CHI 30 | LV -2.5 | Chicago Bears by 20.5 | 42 vs 38.5 Over |
| Cleveland Browns@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | CLE 39, IND 38 | CLE -3.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 2.5 | 77 vs 40 Over |
| Buffalo Bills@New England Patriots | Sun | BUF 25, NE 29 | BUF -7.5 | New England Patriots by 11.5 | 54 vs 41 Over |
| Washington Commanders@New York Giants | Sun | WAS 7, NYG 14 | WAS -3 | New York Giants by 10 | 21 vs 37 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | ATL 16, TB 13 | TB -3 | Atlanta Falcons by 6 | 29 vs 37.5 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | PIT 24, LA 17 | LA -3.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 10.5 | 41 vs 44 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | ARI 10, SEA 20 | SEA -9.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 0.5 | 30 vs 43.5 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Denver Broncos | Sun | GB 17, DEN 19 | DEN -1.5 | Denver Broncos by 0.5 | 36 vs 44 Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | LAC 17, KC 31 | KC -5.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 8.5 | 48 vs 48.5 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | MIA 17, PHI 31 | PHI -3 | Philadelphia Eagles by 11 | 48 vs 52 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Minnesota Vikings | Mon | SF 17, MIN 22 | SF -7 | Minnesota Vikings by 12 | 39 vs 44.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 7, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.