Favorites went 10-5 against the spread (66.7%) and home teams 9-6 (60.0%). 4 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Jacksonville Jaguars beat the number by 13 points in IND @ JAX. Games finished 2 over and 12 under the total (1 push).
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos@Kansas City Chiefs | Thu | DEN 8, KC 19 | KC -10.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 0.5 | 27 vs 47.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Tennessee Titans | Sun | BAL 24, TEN 16 | BAL -5.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 2.5 | 40 vs 42.5 Under |
| Washington Commanders@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | WAS 24, ATL 16 | ATL -1.5 | Washington Commanders by 9.5 | 40 vs 42 Under |
| Minnesota Vikings@Chicago Bears | Sun | MIN 19, CHI 13 | MIN -3 | Minnesota Vikings by 3 | 32 vs 44.5 Under |
| Seattle Seahawks@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | SEA 13, CIN 17 | CIN -3 | Cincinnati Bengals by 1 | 30 vs 45.5 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Cleveland Browns | Sun | SF 17, CLE 19 | SF -9.5 | Cleveland Browns by 11.5 | 36 vs 36 Push |
| New Orleans Saints@Houston Texans | Sun | NO 13, HOU 20 | NO -2 | Houston Texans by 9 | 33 vs 42.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX -4 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 | 57 vs 44 Over |
| Carolina Panthers@Miami Dolphins | Sun | CAR 21, MIA 42 | MIA -14 | Miami Dolphins by 7 | 63 vs 47.5 Over |
| New England Patriots@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | NE 17, LV 21 | LV -3 | Las Vegas Raiders by 1 | 38 vs 41.5 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | ARI 9, LA 26 | LA -7 | Los Angeles Rams by 10 | 35 vs 48 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@New York Jets | Sun | PHI 14, NYJ 20 | PHI -6.5 | New York Jets by 12.5 | 34 vs 43 Under |
| Detroit Lions@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | DET 20, TB 6 | DET -3 | Detroit Lions by 11 | 26 vs 43.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Buffalo Bills | Sun | NYG 9, BUF 14 | BUF -15.5 | New York Giants by 10.5 | 23 vs 43.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@Los Angeles Chargers | Mon | DAL 20, LAC 17 | DAL -1.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 1.5 | 37 vs 49.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 6, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.