Favorites went 7-7 against the spread (50.0%) and home teams 6-8 (42.9%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: New Orleans Saints beat the number by 36.5 points in NO @ NE. Games finished 5 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears@Washington Commanders | Thu | CHI 40, WAS 20 | WAS -6 | Chicago Bears by 26 | 60 vs 45.5 Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Buffalo Bills | Sun | JAX 25, BUF 20 | BUF -5.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 10.5 | 45 vs 48.5 Under |
| Houston Texans@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | HOU 19, ATL 21 | ATL -2.5 | Houston Texans by 0.5 | 40 vs 42 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Detroit Lions | Sun | CAR 24, DET 42 | DET -9.5 | Detroit Lions by 8.5 | 66 vs 43.5 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | TEN 16, IND 23 | TEN -2.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 9.5 | 39 vs 43.5 Under |
| New York Giants@Miami Dolphins | Sun | NYG 16, MIA 31 | MIA -12.5 | Miami Dolphins by 2.5 | 47 vs 47.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@New England Patriots | Sun | NO 34, NE 0 | NE -2.5 | New Orleans Saints by 36.5 | 34 vs 38.5 Under |
| Baltimore Ravens@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | BAL 10, PIT 17 | BAL -4.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 11.5 | 27 vs 38.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | CIN 34, ARI 20 | CIN -3 | Cincinnati Bengals by 11 | 54 vs 45.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | PHI 23, LA 14 | PHI -3.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 5.5 | 37 vs 50.5 Under |
| New York Jets@Denver Broncos | Sun | NYJ 31, DEN 21 | DEN -2.5 | New York Jets by 12.5 | 52 vs 42.5 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | KC 27, MIN 20 | KC -3.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 3.5 | 47 vs 52.5 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | DAL 10, SF 42 | SF -3.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 28.5 | 52 vs 45 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@Las Vegas Raiders | Mon | GB 13, LV 17 | LV -1 | Las Vegas Raiders by 3 | 30 vs 45 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 5, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.