Favorites went 9-5-2 against the spread (64.3%) and home teams 7-7-2 (50.0%). 3 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Dallas Cowboys beat the number by 28.5 points in NE @ DAL. Games finished 7 over and 9 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions@Green Bay Packers | Thu | DET 34, GB 20 | DET -2.5 | Detroit Lions by 11.5 | 54 vs 45 Over |
| Atlanta Falcons@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | ATL 7, JAX 23 | JAX -3.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 12.5 | 30 vs 42.5 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Buffalo Bills | Sun | MIA 20, BUF 48 | BUF -2.5 | Buffalo Bills by 25.5 | 68 vs 53 Over |
| Minnesota Vikings@Carolina Panthers | Sun | MIN 21, CAR 13 | MIN -4.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 3.5 | 34 vs 46.5 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Chicago Bears | Sun | DEN 31, CHI 28 | DEN -3 | Push | 59 vs 47 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Cleveland Browns | Sun | BAL 28, CLE 3 | BAL -2 | Baltimore Ravens by 23 | 31 vs 38.5 Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Houston Texans | Sun | PIT 6, HOU 30 | PIT -3 | Houston Texans by 27 | 36 vs 41.5 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | LA 29, IND 23 | LA -1 | Los Angeles Rams by 5 | 52 vs 44.5 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New Orleans Saints | Sun | TB 26, NO 9 | NO -4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 | 35 vs 41 Under |
| Washington Commanders@Philadelphia Eagles | Sun | WAS 31, PHI 34 | PHI -9.5 | Washington Commanders by 6.5 | 65 vs 43 Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Tennessee Titans | Sun | CIN 3, TEN 27 | CIN -2.5 | Tennessee Titans by 26.5 | 30 vs 41.5 Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | LV 17, LAC 24 | LAC -7 | Push | 41 vs 49 Under |
| New England Patriots@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | NE 3, DAL 38 | DAL -6.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 28.5 | 41 vs 43 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@San Francisco 49ers | Sun | ARI 16, SF 35 | SF -15 | San Francisco 49ers by 4 | 51 vs 44 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@New York Jets | Sun | KC 23, NYJ 20 | KC -9.5 | New York Jets by 6.5 | 43 vs 41.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@New York Giants | Mon | SEA 24, NYG 3 | SEA -2.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 18.5 | 27 vs 46.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 4, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.