Favorites went 9-6-1 against the spread (60.0%) and home teams 8-7-1 (53.3%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Miami Dolphins beat the number by 44 points in DEN @ MIA. Games finished 5 over and 11 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants@San Francisco 49ers | Thu | NYG 12, SF 30 | SF -10.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 7.5 | 42 vs 43.5 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | IND 22, BAL 19 | BAL -7.5 | Indianapolis Colts by 10.5 | 41 vs 43.5 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@Cleveland Browns | Sun | TEN 3, CLE 27 | CLE -3.5 | Cleveland Browns by 20.5 | 30 vs 38 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Detroit Lions | Sun | ATL 6, DET 20 | DET -3 | Detroit Lions by 11 | 26 vs 47.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Green Bay Packers | Sun | NO 17, GB 18 | NO -1.5 | Green Bay Packers by 2.5 | 35 vs 41.5 Under |
| Houston Texans@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | HOU 37, JAX 17 | JAX -7.5 | Houston Texans by 27.5 | 54 vs 43.5 Over |
| Denver Broncos@Miami Dolphins | Sun | DEN 20, MIA 70 | MIA -6 | Miami Dolphins by 44 | 90 vs 47.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | LAC 28, MIN 24 | MIN -1 | Los Angeles Chargers by 5 | 52 vs 54 Under |
| New England Patriots@New York Jets | Sun | NE 15, NYJ 10 | NE -2.5 | New England Patriots by 2.5 | 25 vs 35.5 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@Washington Commanders | Sun | BUF 37, WAS 3 | BUF -5.5 | Buffalo Bills by 28.5 | 40 vs 44 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | CAR 27, SEA 37 | SEA -5 | Seattle Seahawks by 5 | 64 vs 42.5 Over |
| Dallas Cowboys@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | DAL 16, ARI 28 | DAL -11.5 | Arizona Cardinals by 23.5 | 44 vs 43.5 Over |
| Chicago Bears@Kansas City Chiefs | Sun | CHI 10, KC 41 | KC -13 | Kansas City Chiefs by 18 | 51 vs 48 Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | PIT 23, LV 18 | LV -3 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 | 41 vs 43.5 Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Mon | PHI 25, TB 11 | PHI -6 | Philadelphia Eagles by 8 | 36 vs 44 Under |
| Los Angeles Rams@Cincinnati Bengals | Mon | LA 16, CIN 19 | CIN -3 | Push | 35 vs 45.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 3, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.