Favorites went 6-8-2 against the spread (42.9%) and home teams 7-7-2 (50.0%). 5 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Buffalo Bills beat the number by 20.5 points in LV @ BUF. Games finished 13 over and 3 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings@Philadelphia Eagles | Thu | MIN 28, PHI 34 | PHI -6 | Push | 62 vs 49 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | GB 24, ATL 25 | ATL -3 | Green Bay Packers by 2 | 49 vs 40.5 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Buffalo Bills | Sun | LV 10, BUF 38 | BUF -7.5 | Buffalo Bills by 20.5 | 48 vs 47 Over |
| Baltimore Ravens@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | BAL 27, CIN 24 | CIN -3.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 6.5 | 51 vs 45.5 Over |
| Seattle Seahawks@Detroit Lions | Sun | SEA 37, DET 31 | DET -4.5 | Seattle Seahawks by 10.5 | 68 vs 47.5 Over |
| Indianapolis Colts@Houston Texans | Sun | IND 31, HOU 20 | IND -1 | Indianapolis Colts by 10 | 51 vs 40 Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | KC 17, JAX 9 | KC -3.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 4.5 | 26 vs 50.5 Under |
| Chicago Bears@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | CHI 17, TB 27 | TB -2.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7.5 | 44 vs 41 Over |
| Los Angeles Chargers@Tennessee Titans | Sun | LAC 24, TEN 27 | LAC -2.5 | Tennessee Titans by 5.5 | 51 vs 45.5 Over |
| New York Giants@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | NYG 31, ARI 28 | NYG -5 | Arizona Cardinals by 2 | 59 vs 40 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Los Angeles Rams | Sun | SF 30, LA 23 | SF -7.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 0.5 | 53 vs 45 Over |
| New York Jets@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | NYJ 10, DAL 30 | DAL -8.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 11.5 | 40 vs 38.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Denver Broncos | Sun | WAS 35, DEN 33 | DEN -4 | Washington Commanders by 6 | 68 vs 38.5 Over |
| Miami Dolphins@New England Patriots | Sun | MIA 24, NE 17 | MIA -2 | Miami Dolphins by 5 | 41 vs 46.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Carolina Panthers | Mon | NO 20, CAR 17 | NO -3 | Push | 37 vs 39.5 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers | Mon | CLE 22, PIT 26 | CLE -2.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 6.5 | 48 vs 39 Over |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 2, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.