Favorites went 6-10 against the spread (37.5%) and home teams 4-12 (25.0%). 8 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: Dallas Cowboys beat the number by 36.5 points in DAL @ NYG. Games finished 4 over and 12 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions@Kansas City Chiefs | Thu | DET 21, KC 20 | KC -4 | Detroit Lions by 5 | 41 vs 53 Under |
| Carolina Panthers@Atlanta Falcons | Sun | CAR 10, ATL 24 | ATL -3.5 | Atlanta Falcons by 10.5 | 34 vs 40.5 Under |
| Houston Texans@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | HOU 9, BAL 25 | BAL -9.5 | Baltimore Ravens by 6.5 | 34 vs 43.5 Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals@Cleveland Browns | Sun | CIN 3, CLE 24 | CIN -1 | Cleveland Browns by 22 | 27 vs 46.5 Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars@Indianapolis Colts | Sun | JAX 31, IND 21 | JAX -4 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 | 52 vs 45.5 Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | TB 20, MIN 17 | MIN -4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 | 37 vs 45 Under |
| Tennessee Titans@New Orleans Saints | Sun | TEN 15, NO 16 | NO -3 | Tennessee Titans by 2 | 31 vs 41 Under |
| San Francisco 49ers@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | SF 30, PIT 7 | SF -1.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 21.5 | 37 vs 41.5 Under |
| Arizona Cardinals@Washington Commanders | Sun | ARI 16, WAS 20 | WAS -7 | Arizona Cardinals by 3 | 36 vs 38 Under |
| Green Bay Packers@Chicago Bears | Sun | GB 38, CHI 20 | CHI -1 | Green Bay Packers by 19 | 58 vs 41 Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders@Denver Broncos | Sun | LV 17, DEN 16 | DEN -3 | Las Vegas Raiders by 4 | 33 vs 43 Under |
| Miami Dolphins@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | MIA 36, LAC 34 | LAC -3 | Miami Dolphins by 5 | 70 vs 50.5 Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles@New England Patriots | Sun | PHI 25, NE 20 | PHI -3.5 | Philadelphia Eagles by 1.5 | 45 vs 44.5 Over |
| Los Angeles Rams@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | LA 30, SEA 13 | SEA -4.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 21.5 | 43 vs 45 Under |
| Dallas Cowboys@New York Giants | Sun | DAL 40, NYG 0 | DAL -3.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 36.5 | 40 vs 44.5 Under |
| Buffalo Bills@New York Jets | Mon | BUF 16, NYJ 22 | BUF -2.5 | New York Jets by 8.5 | 38 vs 44.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 1, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.