Favorites went 6-7-1 against the spread (46.2%) and home teams 6-7-1 (46.2%). 6 underdogs won outright. The biggest cover: San Francisco 49ers beat the number by 28 points in SF @ JAX. Games finished 8 over and 6 under the total.
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Spread shown as the favorite and points; total = combined points vs the posted line.
| Matchup | Day | Final | Spread | Covered | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers@Chicago Bears | Thu | CAR 13, CHI 16 | CHI -3 | Push | 29 vs 38 Under |
| Indianapolis Colts@New England Patriots | Sun | IND 10, NE 6 | IND -1 | Indianapolis Colts by 3 | 16 vs 42 Under |
| Cleveland Browns@Baltimore Ravens | Sun | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL -6 | Cleveland Browns by 8 | 64 vs 38.5 Over |
| Houston Texans@Cincinnati Bengals | Sun | HOU 30, CIN 27 | CIN -5.5 | Houston Texans by 8.5 | 57 vs 46 Over |
| San Francisco 49ers@Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun | SF 34, JAX 3 | SF -3 | San Francisco 49ers by 28 | 37 vs 44.5 Under |
| New Orleans Saints@Minnesota Vikings | Sun | NO 19, MIN 27 | NO -3 | Minnesota Vikings by 11 | 46 vs 41 Over |
| Green Bay Packers@Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun | GB 19, PIT 23 | PIT -3 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 | 42 vs 38.5 Over |
| Tennessee Titans@Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun | TEN 6, TB 20 | TB -2.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11.5 | 26 vs 39.5 Under |
| Atlanta Falcons@Arizona Cardinals | Sun | ATL 23, ARI 25 | ATL -2 | Arizona Cardinals by 4 | 48 vs 43.5 Over |
| Detroit Lions@Los Angeles Chargers | Sun | DET 41, LAC 38 | DET -2.5 | Detroit Lions by 0.5 | 79 vs 48.5 Over |
| New York Giants@Dallas Cowboys | Sun | NYG 17, DAL 49 | DAL -17.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 14.5 | 66 vs 38.5 Over |
| Washington Commanders@Seattle Seahawks | Sun | WAS 26, SEA 29 | SEA -6 | Washington Commanders by 3 | 55 vs 44 Over |
| New York Jets@Las Vegas Raiders | Sun | NYJ 12, LV 16 | NYJ -1 | Las Vegas Raiders by 5 | 28 vs 35.5 Under |
| Denver Broncos@Buffalo Bills | Mon | DEN 24, BUF 22 | BUF -7.5 | Denver Broncos by 9.5 | 46 vs 47.5 Under |
Trifecta's five most confident picks that week, graded: Week 10, 2023 recap.
ATS means against the spread. A team covers when it wins by more than the point spread, or loses by fewer points than the spread. A game that lands exactly on the spread is a push and is left out of cover percentages.
The model's Thursday Night Football pick, free every week, plus first look at each week's deal.
Regular-season games only, using each game's point spread and final score. Cover % = covers / (covers + non-covers). Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trifecta is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team. Data notes. Ad: SmackTok is a paid partner. Trifecta earns a commission on sign-ups with code TRIFECTA. 21+, select states.